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Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, known for his precise market analysis, recently forecasted a potential sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) prices leading up to its next halving event in April 2024. Speaking with Scott Melker in a fresh interview, Cowen highlighted a historical pattern where Bitcoin’s value typically halves before its much-anticipated halving events.
Speculative 50% Drop
Cowen refrained from asserting a definitive crash but indicated that if Bitcoin were to follow its historical trend, it could experience a 50% reduction from its 2023 high. This speculative decline would see Bitcoin’s value hover around the $15,000 mark, a significant contraction from its peak.
A Look Back at Previous Cycles
Drawing parallels with previous cycles, Cowen noted that Bitcoin has consistently witnessed a 50% price drop in the months preceding a halving. In the last cycle, we observed a 50% drop ahead of the halving, catching many by surprise who were expecting a surge due to the event,” Cowen explained. He further clarified that even during non-halving years, such as the drop in summer 2022, Bitcoin exhibited similar behavior.
Liquidity Concerns Plague the Market
A key factor underpinning Cowen’s analysis is the noticeable liquidity crunch not just in Bitcoin, but across various crypto assets and risk-prone markets. He observed a concerning outflow from altcoins, which he believes will eventually ripple into the Bitcoin market. If fresh money were bolstering the market, we wouldn’t see the total market cap stagnating at February levels or those seen in August 2022,” Cowen pointed out, stressing the absence of new capital inflows.
Ethereum’s Performance Raises Red Flags
A critical observation from Cowen was the current performance of Ethereum, especially when paired against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC pair, he remarked, is in a downward spiral. The collapsing ETH/Bitcoin pair seems less like a correction and more like a distribution phase,” he commented, suggesting larger underlying market weaknesses.
Current Market Status
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is trading at $28,527, enduring a bearish phase. Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC pair stands at 0.05532 BTC, equivalent to approximately $1,578, further cementing Cowen’s concerns about the market’s health.
While Cowen’s insights paint a cautious near-future for Bitcoin, it’s crucial for investors to absorb information from multiple sources and strategies, recognizing the inherent volatility and unpredictability of the crypto market.
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