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Bloomberg Intelligence’s ETF experts have heightened their predictions for the inception of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. for 2023. Analysts’ confidence swelled after Grayscale secured a monumental court victory against the SEC, shifting the odds from a previous 65% to a robust 75%.
Increased Chances for Bitcoin ETF Approval
Grayscale’s pivotal legal win has ignited renewed hope for a spot Bitcoin ETF’s approval within this year. Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, ETF analysts from Bloomberg, emphasized in a recent statement that the likelihood for a Bitcoin ETF’s green light has surged to 75%, an impressive leap from the 65% stance in early August.
“James Seyffart and I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this year (95% by the end of ’24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w “very little wiggle room,” Balchunas remarked on X (formerly Twitter).
Details of Grayscale’s Legal Win
The significant turning point was Grayscale’s triumph in court against the SEC this past Tuesday. The federal appeals court ruled the SEC’s rationale to block the digital asset enterprise’s application as “unlawful.” The court specifically pointed out the SEC’s contradictory handling of spot Bitcoin ETFs versus their futures-based counterparts.
This decision prompted Bitcoin’s value to surge by 6%, reaching heights over $27,000.
Subsequent to the court ruling, the SEC has been flooded with an influx of spot Bitcoin ETF applications in recent months. Notably, financial behemoths like BlackRock and Fidelity are among the applicants. This comes in the backdrop of the SEC consistently rejecting each Bitcoin ETF application it has examined thus far. However, with the landscape seemingly shifting, many sector experts are pinning their hopes on 2023 as a decisive year for the spot Bitcoin ETF
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