Bitcoin’s sudden drop below $92,000 on February 3 sent shockwaves through the crypto market, causing a massive $2.1 billion in liquidations. At first, investors seemed to brace for the economic fallout from President Trump’s tariff war announcement. But soon, attention shifted to whether Bitcoin (BTC) had already reached its peak and was heading for a downward trend. Adding to the uncertainty, Bitcoin Archive pointed out that in past bull markets, Bitcoin typically topped within 330 days of surpassing its previous all-time high—February 4 marked day 328.
Despite the sharp drop, Bitcoin made a quick recovery. The news of a pause on tariffs for Mexico and Canada on February 3, along with a scheduled speech from President Trump’s Crypto Czar David Sacks on February 4, seemed to calm investors. The Fear & Greed Index, which had dipped to 44 (fear), quickly rebounded to 72 (greed), even though China announced retaliatory tariffs on February 4. This raises the question of whether the market bounced back too soon. With ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, there’s a risk that Bitcoin traders might be falling into a bull trap. On-chain data could provide a clearer picture of where things are heading.
Bitcoin Demand Remains Strong
As the tariff scare showed, Bitcoin’s demand remains strong, continuing to absorb pullbacks—even when the price is at historically high levels above $90,000. According to Glassnode’s analysis of Bitcoin’s past bull market dips, there’s potential for increased demand for BTC, which could trigger a “second euphoric phase” in the market. Looking at past cycles (2011-2015, 2015-2018, and 2018-2022), corrections typically averaged around 25%, followed by a surge in price during the final part of the bull run. However, the current market hasn’t yet seen that kind of acceleration.
From a supply perspective, one key metric to watch is the Long/Short Term Holder Threshold. This tracks the shift in Bitcoin ownership from long-term holders to new buyers, offering insight into the supply dynamics. Historically, Bitcoin’s price peaks coincide with long-term holders taking profits and selling their coins to newer investors. But Glassnode data shows that’s not happening yet. While long-term holders have transferred over 1 million BTC to new buyers since November, they still hold a much larger share of the supply, indicating they’re confident that higher prices are still on the horizon.
How High Can Bitcoin Go in 2025?
Additional insights from Glassnode show that the 2022–2025 cycle has followed a similar pattern to the 2015–2018 cycle, but an exact repeat is unlikely. Back in 2017, Bitcoin’s all-time high saw its price surge by 113 times. In contrast, the next peak only saw a 20x return. As Bitcoin matures, each cycle’s growth has slowed, meaning that increasingly larger capital inflows will be needed to push prices higher.
So far, BTC has risen 6x from its cycle lows of $16,000 in December 2023, indicating that we could see a multiplier in the range of 10x to 13x. This would place Bitcoin’s peak between $160,000 and $210,000—target figures that many analysts are forecasting. For instance, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, expects Bitcoin to hit around $180,000, while Bitwise Asset Management and Bernstein predict a $200,000 price. Tom Lee, a CNBC contributor and managing partner at Fundstrat, is even more optimistic, forecasting a $250,000 Bitcoin price.
When Will Bitcoin Top?
Technical analyst CryptoCon uses Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a reliable tool to gauge the different phases of the market cycle. RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and extent of price movements, helping to pinpoint when an asset might be overbought or oversold. By looking at past instances when the RSI neared the 99% threshold, CryptoCon has identified key phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle. Their analysis suggests that Bitcoin entered the fourth phase of its cycle in November 2024, which points to a potential market peak around September or October of 2025. Another well-regarded indicator for predicting market tops is the Pi Cycle Top. This metric tracks the 111-day moving average (111DMA) and a multiple of the 350-day moving average (350DMA x 2). Historically, Bitcoin’s price has peaked when the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA x 2. Based on this pattern, the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top prediction suggests that Bitcoin may reach its next peak around September 26, 2025.
Conclusion:
While the tariff war has certainly created market jitters, Bitcoin’s resilience and demand, paired with strong on-chain data, suggest that the bull market could continue its course into 2025. Key indicators show that Bitcoin still has a significant amount of room for growth, though geopolitical and economic factors will continue to play a role in price fluctuations. Investors should remain cautious yet optimistic, understanding that Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals remain strong.
FAQs:
What caused Bitcoin’s price drop below $92,000?
The sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price was largely attributed to market reactions to U.S. President Trump’s tariff war announcement, leading to concerns about a potential global economic slowdown.
Is Bitcoin’s bull market over?
While some market indicators suggest that Bitcoin could be nearing a peak, on-chain data still points to strong demand. The current bull market may not yet be over and could continue into 2025.
How high can Bitcoin go in 2025?
Analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach anywhere between $160,000 and $250,000 in 2025, depending on various factors such as capital inflows, demand, and market conditions.
I am Toby Rothschild, Co-Founder of Spearmint and author at Coinography, and a strategist focused on advancing Web3 innovation, digital ecosystems, and the future of decentralized technology. I combine product thinking, creative leadership, and deep interest in emerging trends to help shape how individuals and organizations interact with the next generation of digital systems.
My work centers on understanding how blockchain, AI, and digital identity are reshaping global industries. At Spearmint, I help lead the direction of initiatives that bring clarity, structure, and meaningful user experiences to complex technological environments. I focus on bridging vision with execution, ensuring that innovation remains practical, scalable, and aligned with long-term growth.
As an author at Coinography, I create insights that translate fast-moving Web3 developments into clear, useful narratives. I explore topics such as decentralized governance, digital identity, creator economies, token models, protocol design, and the shifting cultural patterns around emerging technology. My aim is to make digital transformation more understandable and approachable for a wider audience.
I believe that Web3 is not only a technological shift but a cultural and creative one. Strong ideas, thoughtful communication, and human-centered design will shape which technologies thrive and how communities evolve around them. My writing and research reflect this belief, focusing on clarity, relevance, and long-term perspective.
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