It may take until April for the crypto market to recover after former U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats triggered massive liquidations and raised fears of a potential trade war, according to a leading crypto analyst.
“You likely won’t see those December highs on most alts for at least two months, if not longer, so keep expectations tempered and just expect it to take time,” crypto analyst Matthew Hyland stated in a Feb. 4 post on X.
Other Major Events ‘Took Months’ to Recover From
Hyland’s projections are based on Feb. 3 marking the largest liquidation event in crypto history, with over $2.24 billion wiped out from the market within 24 hours. Some analysts argue that the actual figure may have been much higher. Bybit co-founder and CEO Ben Zhou estimated that the real total liquidation could be between $8 billion and $10 billion, far exceeding initial reports. The liquidations followed escalating concerns over a potential trade war sparked by Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. However, Trump later paused the planned tariffs on Canada and Mexico after negotiations.
On Feb. 3, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $92,584, falling below the critical $100,000 psychological level for the first time since Jan. 27. Although BTC briefly rebounded above $102,000 the next day, it later retraced and is currently trading at $97,570, according to CoinMarketCap data at the time of publication. Hyland noted that this signals the “low is in”, but emphasized that past market disruptions in 2020 and 2022 took more than two months to recover fully. In 2020, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic triggered a sharp 47% drop in Bitcoin’s price, plunging below $4,000 between March 12 and March 13. By August—five months later—BTC had surged back above $11,000. Similarly, in 2022, two major crypto collapses—the Terra blockchain crash in May and the FTX exchange collapse in November—resulted in long recovery periods, taking months before stability returned to the market.Hyland cautioned that a “straight recovery” in just a few days is highly unlikely.
“Even a V-shape recovery like in 2020 took weeks, with many dips on the way back up,” he added.
Conclusion
Given historical trends, the recent crypto market crash triggered by Trump’s tariff threats may take at least two months for full recovery. Investors should adjust expectations accordingly and prepare for a period of volatility and potential dips before stability returns. Past major events such as the COVID-19 crash (2020) and Terra & FTX collapses (2022) support this outlook. While short-term rebounds may occur, a full recovery will likely be gradual rather than immediate.
FAQs
Why did the crypto market crash on Feb. 3?
The market crash was triggered by massive liquidations following concerns over a potential trade war caused by Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.
How much was liquidated from the crypto market?
Initial reports stated that $2.24 billion was liquidated within 24 hours, but Bybit CEO Ben Zhou estimated the real figure could be between $8 billion and $10 billion.
How long will it take for the crypto market to recover?
Based on past market crashes, analysts estimate it could take at least two months for a full recovery, with potential dips along the way.
I am Toby Rothschild, Co-Founder of Spearmint and author at Coinography, and a strategist focused on advancing Web3 innovation, digital ecosystems, and the future of decentralized technology. I combine product thinking, creative leadership, and deep interest in emerging trends to help shape how individuals and organizations interact with the next generation of digital systems.
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