Bitcoin is on track for a second consecutive losing October, but Galaxy Research says the bear market is over. In a report dated October 26, the firm argued that BTC bottomed near $76,500 on June 30 and has since entered an accumulation phase.

The call, from Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research, lands with the market still under pressure. Bitcoin was trading around $80,000 when the assessment emerged, down more than 4% since the month began, leaving investors to weigh persistent selling against improving long-term signals.

The case that the Bitcoin bear market is over

Galaxy's argument rests first on trend. After 44 weeks stuck beneath its 50-week moving average, Bitcoin climbed back above the line in September, and the week ended October 18 delivered a fifth consecutive weekly close above it, according to Decrypt. In Thorn's framework, the 200-week average marks the floor of a bear market while the 50-week line acts as its ceiling; the price tested the floor in June and reclaimed the ceiling after nearly a year below it.

History is on the firm's side, it says. Since 2011, Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-week average after a stretch of 20 weeks or more below it four times, and on each occasion the price went on to retake its prior all-time high while never finishing a week more than 8.4% under the reclaim level during the next twelve months. Galaxy also leaned on the halving cycle: prior cycles reached their lows somewhere between 777 and 912 days following a halving, and the day 916 window has now passed without a repeat of prior lows.

The downturn itself was the mildest Bitcoin has ever recorded, with a 53% decline versus the 77% to 93% drawdowns seen in earlier cycles, Decrypt reported. In another first, the market value of Bitcoin held above its realized value, defined as the average price at which every coin last moved, throughout the entire decline; the ratio between the two bottomed at 1.10, versus lows of 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 in prior cycles. Galaxy said the worst weekly close came in only 4.7% below the 200-week average.

Sellers have stepped back

The second leg of Galaxy's case is that the sources of selling pressure have thinned. Net long positions held by asset managers in CME Bitcoin futures are down 57% from the week of Bitcoin's all-time high in October 2025, and nine investment firms, including Millennium Management and Goldman Sachs, cut their reported spot Bitcoin ETF holdings by a combined 68,000 BTC-equivalent between September 2025 and June 2026, according to Yahoo Finance.

Long-dormant coins are also moving less. Sales of coins that had sat untouched for five years or longer have run at roughly 34,000 BTC per month in 2026, half the 67,000 BTC pace recorded in 2024, according to Galaxy's data. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, meanwhile, have absorbed 87,000 BTC since the June trough, even though their holdings slipped only 11% from peak to trough while the price fell 53%.

That matters, in Galaxy's view, because once leveraged and speculative sellers have exited, prices can find a floor even without a surge of fresh buying. The firm argues the data points to accumulation rather than the start of a fresh bearish phase.

On-chain data and the macro argument

On-chain metrics add texture. Glassnode says about 70% of short-term holder supply sits in profit, down from almost all of it in late September. Coins held by short-term holders, the cohort that drove the rebound off $58,525, carry an average purchase price of $74,811, putting that group roughly 9% in the green, and the spent-output profit ratio, a gauge of whether coins move at a gain, reads 1.009, which suggests very few holders are selling into the recovery.

Santiment data shows Bitcoin has lost roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16, an exit the firm reads as a possible bottom signal. "Retail capitulation has historically been more constructive for price than a sudden flood of new buyers chasing rallies," it noted, according to Yahoo Finance.

Thorn also argued the macro case has strengthened. U.S. federal debt reached $40.44 trillion on October 20, the fiscal 2026 gap came in at $1.99 trillion, and this month the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.31%, a level not seen since 2007. In Galaxy's view, rolling over a debt pile that large at rates near 5% could push policymakers to tolerate inflation, strengthening the case for fixed-supply assets such as Bitcoin. "A bet against stocks and hard assets is a bet on fiat, the one position that makes no sense today," Thorn wrote.

A choppy market tests the call

The bullish thesis arrives in a market still struggling for direction. Flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs flipped from a $1 billion run of inflows across three days to two sessions of heavy withdrawals, leaving October flows in the red, before recording $110 million in net inflows on October 26, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust accounting for nearly all the gains. U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded $88 million to $90 million in outflows over the same session.

Inflation figures that came in above forecasts last week brought back wagers on a further Federal Reserve rate increase, and on Sunday Bitcoin slipped under $80,000 to roughly $79,700, according to CoinGecko. Higher rates lift Treasury yields, and a bond paying around 5% with almost no risk makes Bitcoin a harder sell. At around $80,000, BTC sits roughly 35% to 36% below its October 2025 high of about $126,000, while the S&P 500 sits less than 1% below a record.

Thorn's tripwire is explicit: a sustained weekly close below the 50-week moving average, currently near $76,540, that is not regained within a month would undermine the assessment and raise the risk of another leg lower. Bitcoin's immediate test is the $75,800 to $76,500 region around that average. Thorn also wrote that Bitcoin "has proven its ability to run to at least $125k, and we see no reason why it can't retake that level." Galaxy and Thorn both disclose that they hold Bitcoin.

What the signals say now

As things stand, the market is sending two messages at once: October is shaping up as a second straight monthly loss, down 4.10% since the month began, even as the case builds that the worst of the downturn may already be in the rear view. Glassnode data shows recent buyers have cooled off, and Bitcoin's November record gives reason for caution, according to Yahoo Finance.

If the ETF recovery continues and selling pressure remains subdued, Galaxy's analysis suggests BTC could build a stronger base for another advance. If inflows fade and the price loses its long-term moving-average support, the bullish thesis faces a serious challenge. The firm's own conclusion is blunt: "we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin."

Conclusion

Galaxy Research has put in writing what most analysts avoid: a formal call that Bitcoin's bear market ended with a June 30 bottom near $76,500 and that the asset is now in an accumulation phase. The evidence includes five straight weekly closes above the 50-week moving average, the shallowest drawdown on record at 53%, and a 57% drop in asset managers' CME net long positions. The next concrete test is whether Bitcoin holds the $75,800 to $76,500 region around that average; a weekly close below it without recovery within a month would, by Thorn's own definition, break the thesis.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Galaxy Research say the Bitcoin bear market is over?

In an October 26 report, Galaxy argued Bitcoin bottomed near $76,500 on June 30 and entered an accumulation phase. It cited five straight weekly closes above the 50-week moving average after 44 weeks below it, a 53% drawdown that was the shallowest on record, and selling pressure that has eased as asset managers cut CME net long positions by 57%.

What price did Alex Thorn identify as Bitcoin's June 2026 bottom?

Thorn, Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research, argued the downturn bottomed at approximately $76,500 on June 30, 2026. Bitcoin traded around $80,000 when the report emerged, roughly 39% above that low but still about 35% below its October 2025 high of roughly $126,000.

What would invalidate Galaxy's bullish Bitcoin thesis?

Thorn's stated tripwire is a sustained weekly close below the 50-week moving average, currently near $76,540, that is not regained within a month. Galaxy said such a move without a quick recovery would undermine the assessment and raise the risk of another leg lower, making the $75,800 to $76,500 region the immediate test.

How much did spot Bitcoin ETFs take in on October 26, 2026?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110 million in net inflows on October 26, ending a two-day outflow streak, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust accounting for nearly all the gains. Over the same session, U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded $88 million to $90 million in outflows.

What is the macro case Galaxy makes for Bitcoin with $40.44 trillion in federal debt?

Galaxy argues that refinancing $40.44 trillion in federal debt at interest rates near 5%, after fiscal 2026 closed with a $1.99 trillion deficit, could pressure policymakers to tolerate inflation. That, the firm says, strengthens the case for fixed-supply assets such as Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement.