Bitcoin bears may soon struggle to stay confident about a near-term price drop, according to crypto analyst Pav Hundal. He highlights that the current pro-crypto macro environment makes it likely that Bitcoin will hit new all-time highs (ATH) by the end of March.
Volatility Levels Return to US Election Period
Hundal pointed out that Bitcoin’s market volatility has returned to levels similar to those seen around the US election period in November, just before the initial excitement following Donald Trump’s victory as President on November 5. After Trump won, Bitcoin experienced a surge, rallying for a month, surpassing its previous all-time high of $73,679 and even reaching the key $100,000 milestone by December 5. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $102,470, according to CoinMarketCap data.
“Volatility has lost its momentum, which could pose risks for short-term speculators,” Hundal said.
“We’re in a phase where volatility is poised to rise again, which could be challenging for both bulls and bears in the market,” he added. Before the election results were confirmed, uncertainty among traders caused a surge in liquidations. On November 4, the day before Trump’s victory was solidified, liquidations reached nearly $350 million, as Bitcoin briefly dropped below $69,000, with Trump’s odds of winning shrinking. However, Hundal believes that the crypto market is now entering “the most accommodating era of policy-making in crypto history, and people are becoming increasingly indifferent.”
Crypto Commentators Divided on Bitcoin’s Q1 Performance
Hundal mentioned that he’s never seen such a “mismatch” between the macro conditions in the crypto market and the sentiment of investors. On December 14, VanEck, an asset management firm, predicted that Bitcoin would reach a medium-term peak in Q1, with the possibility of new all-time highs by Q4 2025. However, opinions among other crypto experts are split when it comes to Bitcoin’s prospects in Q1. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could pull back to the $70,000 to $75,000 range, which he thinks might spark a “mini financial crisis.” On the other hand, Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, recently stated that Bitcoin has less than a 10% chance of dropping to $75,000 in Q1.
Conclusion
While predictions remain split, many analysts believe Bitcoin is poised for a strong rally, potentially hitting new all-time highs by the end of Q1. Despite some bearish forecasts, the macro environment appears to be in favor of Bitcoin’s continued growth. The key challenge for Bitcoin in the near term will be navigating volatility and investor sentiment.
FAQs
Will Bitcoin reach new all-time highs in Q1?
Many analysts believe Bitcoin is likely to hit new all-time highs by the end of Q1, driven by favorable macro conditions and increasing institutional support.
What are some predictions for Bitcoin’s Q1 price?
Some experts, like Pav Hundal, expect Bitcoin to reach new highs by the end of Q1, while others, such as Arthur Hayes, foresee a pullback to the $70,000 to $75,000 range.
Is Bitcoin likely to face a significant drop in price?
Dr. Sean Dawson from Derive has stated that Bitcoin has less than a 10% chance of dropping to the $75,000 range in Q1, suggesting that a significant drop is unlikely.
I am Toby Rothschild, Co-Founder of Spearmint and author at Coinography, and a strategist focused on advancing Web3 innovation, digital ecosystems, and the future of decentralized technology. I combine product thinking, creative leadership, and deep interest in emerging trends to help shape how individuals and organizations interact with the next generation of digital systems.
My work centers on understanding how blockchain, AI, and digital identity are reshaping global industries. At Spearmint, I help lead the direction of initiatives that bring clarity, structure, and meaningful user experiences to complex technological environments. I focus on bridging vision with execution, ensuring that innovation remains practical, scalable, and aligned with long-term growth.
As an author at Coinography, I create insights that translate fast-moving Web3 developments into clear, useful narratives. I explore topics such as decentralized governance, digital identity, creator economies, token models, protocol design, and the shifting cultural patterns around emerging technology. My aim is to make digital transformation more understandable and approachable for a wider audience.
I believe that Web3 is not only a technological shift but a cultural and creative one. Strong ideas, thoughtful communication, and human-centered design will shape which technologies thrive and how communities evolve around them. My writing and research reflect this belief, focusing on clarity, relevance, and long-term perspective.
Professional Links Website: https://coinography.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tobyrothschild/
