Bitcoin (BTC) $96,925 continued its downtrend this week, briefly dipping below $95,600 during the trading day. With a demand zone between $94,300 and $95,800, the crypto asset exhibited a liquidity sweep of equal lows around $96,200, but a clear bullish reversal has yet to materialize in the short term.
Bitcoin on Track to Topple $120,000, Says Analyst
Crypto analyst Mikybull highlighted that despite BTC’s ongoing consolidation, the asset could potentially reach a new all-time high of $120,000 if it follows its historical seasonal pattern from 2018 to 2014. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin has typically experienced an uptrend in February. With seasonality data indicating a similar pattern, BTC appears positioned to trend higher in 2025 as well.
Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted an average February return of 14.08%, with only two negative performances in the past decade. Its average Q1 returns stand at 52.43%, ranking just behind Q4’s historical average of 84% since inception. Similarly, market researcher Danny Marques suggested that BTC’s recent drop to $91,000 may represent a local bottom. The analyst stated,
“Bitcoin will be going to $120k+ sooner than you think, and it’ll be quick. This is how I see the next few weeks/months for those who care about charts.”
BTC to $110,000 or $80,000 First?
Despite bullish arguments for a local bottom, data analysis platform Alphractal cautioned that Bitcoin’s biggest risk lies in leverage trading, which could open the door for a potential $80,000 retest. In an X post, the analytics firm noted a significant increase in long positions during October 2024, creating a liquidity gap between $72,000 and $86,000—an area of relatively low trading activity.
As a result, a sharp decline below $80,000 remains a possibility, aiming to liquidate long positions accumulated since November 2024. Conversely, a cluster of short positions exists above $111,000, opened in December 2024, though long positions currently outweigh shorts by a 2:1 ratio. Additionally, the decline in open interest from $76 billion to $59 billion indicates a reduction in leveraged positions, signaling a lower risk appetite among traders. This shift could impact Bitcoin’s price stability over the coming weeks.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s seasonality data suggests a potential rally toward $120,000, supported by historical trends and positive Q1 performance. However, leverage trading poses a considerable risk, leaving room for a possible price correction to $80,000 before any significant upward movement. Traders should remain cautious and monitor market liquidity, leverage trends, and open interest levels to navigate the volatile crypto landscape effectively.
FAQs
Can Bitcoin really reach $120,000 in Q1 2025?
Historical data and seasonal trends suggest that BTC could hit $120,000, but market conditions, macroeconomic factors, and leverage trading risks could impact this trajectory.
What is the biggest risk for Bitcoin right now?
Leverage trading remains the primary concern, as excessive long positions could trigger sharp liquidations, potentially pushing the price down to $80,000.
Why is February considered a strong month for Bitcoin?
Since 2013, Bitcoin has delivered positive returns in February on average, with only two instances of decline in the past decade. This historical pattern suggests a potential continuation of the uptrend.
Could Bitcoin drop below $80,000 before moving higher?
Yes, if long positions accumulated since late 2024 get liquidated, BTC may retest $80,000 before resuming its upward movement.
I am Toby Rothschild, Co-Founder of Spearmint and author at Coinography, and a strategist focused on advancing Web3 innovation, digital ecosystems, and the future of decentralized technology. I combine product thinking, creative leadership, and deep interest in emerging trends to help shape how individuals and organizations interact with the next generation of digital systems.
My work centers on understanding how blockchain, AI, and digital identity are reshaping global industries. At Spearmint, I help lead the direction of initiatives that bring clarity, structure, and meaningful user experiences to complex technological environments. I focus on bridging vision with execution, ensuring that innovation remains practical, scalable, and aligned with long-term growth.
As an author at Coinography, I create insights that translate fast-moving Web3 developments into clear, useful narratives. I explore topics such as decentralized governance, digital identity, creator economies, token models, protocol design, and the shifting cultural patterns around emerging technology. My aim is to make digital transformation more understandable and approachable for a wider audience.
I believe that Web3 is not only a technological shift but a cultural and creative one. Strong ideas, thoughtful communication, and human-centered design will shape which technologies thrive and how communities evolve around them. My writing and research reflect this belief, focusing on clarity, relevance, and long-term perspective.
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