Bitcoin’s recent surge has captured the cryptocurrency world’s attention, but analyst Jesse Myers argues that President Donald Trump’s election victory is not the primary catalyst behind the rally. Instead, he points to Bitcoin’s halving event earlier this year as the main driver.
The Impact of Bitcoin’s Halving
The April halving reduced Bitcoin’s block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, making each block harder to solve for a smaller reward. This caused a supply shock, where “there’s not enough supply available at current prices to satisfy demand,” pushing the market toward a new price equilibrium.
As Bitcoin’s supply tightens, demand from institutional investors and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has added pressure. On November 11, US Bitcoin ETFs saw a notable spike, purchasing approximately 13,940 BTC in one day, compared to just 450 BTC mined.
ETF Inflows and the Price Surge
Myers predicts the only way to balance supply and demand is for Bitcoin’s price to increase. This could trigger a price “flywheel” that escalates into mania, possibly resulting in a bubble. He points to past post-halving cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020, suggesting the same pattern will unfold now.
Bitcoin’s market dynamics are unique, with its supply halving every four years. This predictable event leads to what Myers calls a “post-halving bubble,” potentially pushing Bitcoin’s price to new heights.
Bitcoin’s Scarcity and Market Potential
On-chain analyst James Check shares a similar view. He compares Bitcoin’s market cap to gold, which grew by about $6 trillion last year. While gold has a constant influx of new supply, Bitcoin’s supply remains “absolutely scarce.” With 94% of Bitcoin already mined or lost, only 1.2 million BTC remain, further tightening supply.
Institutional Confidence in Bitcoin’s Future
American financier Anthony Scaramucci is also optimistic. He told investors, “It might seem like you missed out, but you haven’t.” It’s early.” Scaramucci predicts the U.S. will establish a Bitcoin reserve, a move that may be followed by other countries and institutional investors.
As Bitcoin’s supply tightens and demand rises, analysts are confident the digital asset will continue to rise in value.
I am Toby Rothschild, Co-Founder of Spearmint and author at Coinography, and a strategist focused on advancing Web3 innovation, digital ecosystems, and the future of decentralized technology. I combine product thinking, creative leadership, and deep interest in emerging trends to help shape how individuals and organizations interact with the next generation of digital systems.
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