JPMorgan Chase's asset management division has projected that Bitcoin will outperform U.S. stocks, bonds and gold over the next 10 years, according to its newly released 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report. The JPMorgan Bitcoin forecast, the first time the annual report has included a returns projection for the cryptocurrency, sets a base case of 10% annualized returns over the coming decade.

The projection matters because it comes from the largest U.S. bank, whose CEO Jamie Dimon has spent years publicly deriding Bitcoin, and because it places the cryptocurrency ahead of every major traditional asset class in the bank's long-term models. At the same time, the bank declined to recommend Bitcoin as a portfolio allocation, citing its volatility and unstable correlations with other assets.

JPMorgan Bitcoin Forecast vs. Stocks, Bonds and Gold

Under the base case, Bitcoin is expected to return 10% annually over the next 10 years, compared with 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 5.6% for broad U.S. bonds and 5.5% for gold, according to the report. The Globe and Mail reported that the bank's assumptions also put small-cap stocks at 7.7% and U.S. bonds in a range of 5.6% to 6.6%, with real estate investment trusts at 8.2%.

If the base cases prove accurate, $100 invested in Bitcoin would grow to about $259 over the next decade, while the same amount in large-cap stocks would reach roughly $206, The Globe and Mail reported. The bank's base case implies a Bitcoin price of about $211,130 by 2036, according to Yahoo Finance.

The report framed the JPMorgan Bitcoin forecast within a broader outlook that sees artificial-intelligence-driven productivity gains lifting U.S. real economic growth to 2.1% annually, with inflation averaging 2.4% over the period. The bank also raised its expected annual return for large companies, such as those in the S&P 500, from 6.7% to 7.5%, citing strong profit margins.

Three Drivers Behind the Projection

The bank contends that Bitcoin's outperformance will be powered by three factors. The most important, carrying a 65% weight in the calculation, is Bitcoin's slowing supply growth relative to the growth of global money supply, Yahoo Finance reported.

The second factor, weighted at 30%, is Bitcoin's inclusion in portfolios alongside other scarce store-of-value assets such as gold. The third and weakest driver is the coin's increasing network activity.

The report described the cryptocurrency's dual nature in markets. BTC mostly trades like a high beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth, but it is sometimes treated as 'digital gold,' the report said, according to AOL. JPMorgan analysts also observed that Bitcoin is "the anchor" of a crypto asset class now exceeding $2.5 trillion in value, roughly the size of the Swiss stock market and the U.S. private capital market.

Wide Range of Outcomes and 55% Volatility

The bank laid out a wide band of scenarios around its base case. The bear case calls for an 11.2% annual loss, which implies a price of about $24,817, roughly 70% below Bitcoin's $81,300 level earlier in October, Yahoo Finance reported. The bull case would see the cryptocurrency appreciate 16.6% annually.

Regardless of which scenario plays out, the bank expects Bitcoin's volatility to run at 55% annualized, based on historical data. That compares with 18% for U.S. large-cap stocks and 17.2% for gold, according to The Globe and Mail, and helps explain the large gap between the bull and bear cases.

The projections are conservative relative to Bitcoin's own history. The coin has posted a 10-year compound annual growth rate of 63%, and Yahoo Finance characterized the bank's price growth assumptions as on the bearish side compared with that record, though reasonable.

Bitcoin's recent trading illustrates the swings the bank flagged. The token peaked at just over $126,000 in October 2025, AOL reported, and was trading at roughly $81,500 on Oct. 23, down about 35% from that record. The Globe and Mail reported that as of Oct. 26, Bitcoin was trading about 36% below its all-time high.

No Portfolio Allocation Recommendation

Despite the favorable return projections, the bank stopped short of recommending that investors buy Bitcoin for a diversified portfolio. The press release for the report specifically noted that Bitcoin is not included as an allocation, and the bank has not yet incorporated it into the covariance matrices it uses to determine how much of an asset belongs in a portfolio, The Globe and Mail reported.

"At the moment, we do not make a case for bitcoin (BTC) as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations," JPMorgan analysts Sheena Shah and Dennis Cristallo wrote in the analysis, according to AOL. "We see bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing."

The analysts elaborated on the reasoning. "BTC currently lacks a clear role as a diversifier in balanced portfolios due to unstable correlations to other asset classes," they wrote, adding: "Uncertain correlations, combined with high volatility, also limit its utility in strategic asset allocation today, in our view."

The bank identified two specific obstacles to portfolio use: volatility and unstable correlations with other assets. Gold has held its value during several stock market sell-offs, whereas Bitcoin has frequently fallen alongside equities, The Globe and Mail reported. Historically, the cryptocurrency has outperformed stocks by a wide margin during bull markets while suffering much deeper losses in bear markets.

A Shift From Dimon's Years of Criticism

The report's tone contrasts with the long record of public skepticism from Dimon. In 2017, he called Bitcoin a "fraud" heading toward a crash, and over the years he dismissed it as a pet rock and "worthless," AOL reported. CryptoPotato reported that Dimon also described Bitcoin and other digital assets as decentralized Ponzi schemes in 2022 and told a Senate hearing in 2023 that he would shut the industry down if he ran the government.

Even as Dimon's criticism continued, the bank's business moved toward digital assets. JPMorgan began allowing clients to buy Bitcoin last year as banks developed stronger interest in crypto, AOL reported. CryptoPotato reported that the bank launched JPM Coin, built its Onyx blockchain infrastructure, executed tokenized collateral transactions with BlackRock and Barclays, invested in blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs, and recently let institutional clients use Bitcoin and Ether as collateral for loans.

Dimon framed the bank's client access in personal-freedom terms at JPMorgan's annual investor day in May 2025. "I don't think you should smoke, but I defend your right to smoke," he said, according to AOL.

Conclusion

JPMorgan's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report establishes a base case of 10% annualized Bitcoin returns over the next decade, above its projections for U.S. large-cap stocks, bonds and gold, while explicitly declining to recommend the cryptocurrency as a portfolio allocation. The bank cited 55% assumed volatility and unstable correlations with other asset classes as the reasons Bitcoin remains outside its strategic allocation models.

The report leaves the door open to a future change in stance. The bank indicated that if volatility continues to decline and correlations stabilize, particularly as regulations become clearer and liquidity and price discovery improve, Bitcoin could eventually mature into a legitimate portfolio component.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is JPMorgan's Bitcoin price prediction for 2036?

JPMorgan's base case of 10% annualized returns implies a Bitcoin price of about $211,130 by 2036, according to Yahoo Finance. The bear case, an 11.2% annual loss, implies roughly $24,817, while the bull case of 16.6% annual growth would take the price higher. All scenarios assume 55% annualized volatility.

How much does JPMorgan expect Bitcoin to return per year over the next 10 years?

JPMorgan's asset management arm projects a base case of 10% annualized returns for Bitcoin over the next 10 years, according to its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report. That compares with 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 5.6% for broad U.S. bonds and 5.5% for gold over the same period.

Why doesn't JPMorgan recommend Bitcoin for diversified portfolios?

JPMorgan cited Bitcoin's high volatility, assumed at 55% annualized, and its unstable correlations with other asset classes. Analysts Sheena Shah and Dennis Cristallo wrote that the bank does not make a case for Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier, calling it a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.

What are JPMorgan's bull and bear cases for Bitcoin?

The bank's bear case calls for an 11.2% annual loss over the decade, implying a price near $24,817, while the bull case projects 16.6% annual growth. The base case sits at 10% annualized returns. The wide spread reflects Bitcoin's assumed 55% volatility, far above the 18% assumed for U.S. large-cap stocks.

What has Jamie Dimon said about Bitcoin in the past?

Dimon called Bitcoin a "fraud" in 2017 and later described it as a pet rock, "worthless" and a decentralized Ponzi scheme. In 2023 he told a Senate hearing he would close the industry down if he ran the government. Despite this, JPMorgan began letting clients buy Bitcoin last year and now accepts Bitcoin and Ether as loan collateral.